A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
